How to know which IPO should you invest?

Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) can be an exciting way for investors to get in early on companies they believe have high growth potential. When a private company goes public, its shares become available to everyday investors for the first time. However, not all IPOs are created equal and discerning which ones are worth investing in versus those best avoided takes some homework. Using careful analysis around business fundamentals for the latest IPO, valuation, purpose of raising capital, and risk factors, retail investors can make more informed decisions.

1. Assess the Business Model and Industry Growth Potential 

The first key area to research is the company’s business model and addressable market. Gather an understanding of how the company makes money now and plans to in the future. Estimate the total available market size it is targeting. While past growth is no guarantee of future performance, it provides clues into competitiveness. Evaluate barriers to entry and competition in the space to gauge how unique and defensible the company’s proposition is versus substitutes. Higher growth potential industries naturally lend better odds for stock price appreciation.

2. Evaluate Management Quality and Corporate Governance

Management capability and motivation can make or break a business’ success. Check out the experience and track record of the key leaders along with their vision for the future. Read the prospectus for details on how the IPO proceeds will be utilized. Having clear capital allocation plans towards expanding growth drivers reassures. Review board structure and promoter shareholdings for governance standards enforcement. Skin in the game and longer-term focus aligns interests better.

3. Analyse Financial Health, Profitability and Consistency

Dive deeper by studying key financial ratios and metrics over the last 3-5 years. Identify revenue and earnings growth consistency across both up and down economic cycles. Assess margins and cash flows to determine business quality and ability to finance growth internally. Balance sheet strength and leverage levels reveal ability to withstand downturns. Higher quality profitable businesses make more attractive long-term investments for creating enduring shareholder value.

4. Determine Valuation in Relation to Peers

Once basics seem healthy, turn attention to benchmarking the implied valuation from IPO price band to relevant industry peers on metrics like Price to Earnings, EV/Sales, etc. Very high valuations signal already optimistic expectations building in rapid acceleration of growth baked in. Be wary of excessive premiums unless the company is delivering breakthrough innovations and sits in a hot, high growth category. Since the Extreme Bull case must play out to justify such multiples, any slight disappointment can lead to steep correction and losses.

5. Understand Purpose and Requirements of Capital Raise

Analyse intended usage of IPO funds carefully as per the stated objects of the offer. Financing organic expansion, repaying debt or acquiring technology/businesses to drive growth often make reasonable cases over enriching existing shareholders through offer for sale. Higher primary capital component signals bullish growth plans for the future. Finally, grasp expected post IPO shareholding structure for levels of promoter skin in the game and free float for stock liquidity. High quality names tend to oversubscribe and have sufficient public shareholding which can impact the IPO allotment status of every investor.

Conclusion

Investing in new IPO carries higher uncertainty but also the potential for outsized gains. While tedious, evaluating quality of the business model, growth levers, financial health, valuations and risk factors guides smart capital allocation. Focus the analysis on finding enduring franchises in leading industries for long term portfolio appreciation rather than chasing fleeting momentum names. Staying disciplined and selective this way allows retail investors to maximize success rates in IPO investing.